The Unpredictability of Stock Market
The month of July shows the unpredictability of the stock market as hope and optimism rally against the mounting evidence of sustain high inflation, much much higher interest rates, quantitative tightening and geo political instability.
Going into the month of Aug the stage is set for stock market to come tumbling back down and testing new lows. Long term (20 years horizon) investors need not be too concern on such fluctuations and be patience for Mr Market to make an offer that is too good to refuse.
A better indicator to make buy and sell decision is investor sentiments. Now we get help from the greed and fear index (https://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed) to make these decisions. Buy at extreme fear and sell at extreme greed will make anyone a superstar in investing.
Beside the SRS fund, I own a portfolio of overseas (US & China) stocks which is roughly down 20% from my initial capital cost. This portfolio similar to the SRS fund have a long horizon and I am indifferent to whether the market rally or crash over the next 1 or 2 years.
In summary the worst enemy to an investor is often themselves being emotional and not being able to sit still and make changes to their portfolio. If you believe in humanity and civilisation then it is fair to conclude that as a race we will be better off in 10 years and even more so in 20 years as technology exponentially improve.
Essentially the stock market is a reflection of our great human civilisation and with this in mind I get to sleep soundly knowing the future is a better place.
The SRS Fund
Coming back to the Singapore. Our economy continue to expand steadily and is somewhat shielded from the huge tsunami affecting many countries globally. This has to be credited to our SG government doing its following jobs.
- Steady stream foreign direct investments
- Maintaining price stability (yes you got to compare relative to other countries and not against what you paid previously)
- Steady reopening
As such I believe our Finance, Tourism, Property and Construction sectors stand to benefit the most going forward while export sector such as manufacturing takes a back seat.
SRS Fund Review Jul 2022
Again no movement in the month of July going into the earnings. Record amount of dividend is expected in Q3 as banks and REITs earnings remain strong. Going into Q3 I may trim some of the overseas REITs holding to beef up cash for future opportunities.
Recent investment in Keppel Corp paid off as they announced record earnings in their half year results. I expect Keppel Corp to continue its earnings momentum over the next 2 to 3 years.
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The SRS Fund Jan 2026
After a blockbuster 2025 that saw GDP growth hit a surprise 4.8%, the first month of 2026 has proven that the momentum is far from a fluke. Between record-breaking stock market performance and massive industrial investments, the “Little Red Dot” is making a very big noise.
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MyNest US Fund Jan 26
I have a confession to make. After reading Chip War at the end of 2022, I fully grasped the strategic importance of TSMC and ASML in the global semiconductor supply chain.
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The SRS Fund Dec 2025
If someone had told me at the start of the year that the Singapore stock market would deliver returns in excess of 20%, I would have shrugged it off as wishful thinking.
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MyNest US Fund Dec 25
MyNest US Fund rounded the first year of inception with a slight outperformance to our benchmark the S&P 500. The first year of operation tested to resolve in knowing what we own as we navigated volatility which started on Trump’s Liberation Day.
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The SRS Fund Nov 2025
If you’ve been watching the Singapore market this past month, the narrative has been impossible to ignore: it is a tale of three banks, and unfortunately for UOB, it has found itself lagging its peers.
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MyNest US Fund Nov 25
November tested the patience of the broader market, defined by a distinct shift in sentiment regarding Artificial Intelligence. The narrative of an “AI Bubble” finally took hold,
MYNEST.SG 