The SRS Fund Jul 2022 Update

The Unpredictability of Stock Market

The month of July shows the unpredictability of the stock market as hope and optimism rally against the mounting evidence of sustain high inflation, much much higher interest rates, quantitative tightening and geo political instability.

Going into the month of Aug the stage is set for stock market to come tumbling back down and testing new lows.  Long term (20 years horizon) investors need not be too concern on such fluctuations and be patience for Mr Market to make an offer that is too good to refuse. 

A better indicator to make buy and sell decision is investor sentiments.   Now we get help from the greed and fear index (https://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed) to make these decisions.  Buy at extreme fear and sell at extreme greed will make anyone a superstar in investing. 

Beside the SRS fund, I own a portfolio of overseas (US & China) stocks which is roughly down 20% from my initial capital cost.  This portfolio similar to the SRS fund have a long horizon and I am indifferent to whether the market rally or crash over the next 1 or 2 years.

In summary the worst enemy to an investor is often themselves being emotional and not being able to sit still and make changes to their portfolio.   If you believe in humanity and civilisation then it is fair to conclude that as a race we will be better off in 10 years and even more so in 20 years as technology exponentially improve.  

Essentially the stock market is a reflection of our great human civilisation and with this in mind I get to sleep soundly knowing the future is a better place.

The SRS Fund

Coming back to the Singapore.  Our economy continue to expand steadily and is somewhat shielded from the huge tsunami affecting many countries globally.  This has to be credited to our SG government doing its following jobs.

1. Steady stream foreign direct investments
2. Maintaining price stability (yes you got to compare relative to other countries and not against what you paid previously)
3. Steady reopening

As such I believe our Finance, Tourism, Property and Construction sectors stand to benefit the most going forward while export sector such as manufacturing takes a back seat.  

SRS Fund Review Jul 2022

Again no movement in the month of July going into the earnings. Record amount of dividend is expected in Q3 as banks and REITs earnings remain strong. Going into Q3 I may trim some of the overseas REITs holding to beef up cash for future opportunities.

Recent investment in Keppel Corp paid off as they announced record earnings in their half year results. I expect Keppel Corp to continue its earnings momentum over the next 2 to 3 years.