The stock market rally which begin in Jan of 2023 seem more driven by emotional factors than macro trends. While all signs points to lower inflation (main trigger for last year selloff), I believe several global market trends now makes it unlikely for it to revert to 2% level.
De-Globalisation
As Covid whack havoc on global supply chain companies reacted by diversifying suppliers to several countries which boosted the resilience of supply but at the expense of higher cost.
US Conflict with China
The battle of the 2 giants continue on many fronts from leading edge technology to electric vehicles. US had ban high end chip sales to China which will likely drive up cost for technological products and services.
War
The war which started almost a year ago has no end in sight. Recent development with the West providing tanks will further escalate it. Disruption to oil and other supplies will continue to put pressure on prices to rise.
High Interest Rates
The rally suggested the Federal Reserves will do a U-turn soon and start lowering interest rates. This I feel amounts to wishful thinking as inflation once out is not easy to put back into the can. As such I can see the Fed gradually increasing rate and holding rates high for a substantial amount time (At least 12 months even after paused). While the Fed had been wrong on most occasions in recent years, holding rate above the inflation number seems to be the most rational act any central bank can do.
If interest rate remain high for an extended period of time, consumer and business with excess debt will begin to feel the strain on cost. Revenue growth will slow and a cleansing recession will occur. During this time the stock market will likely reflect the worsening fundamentals and indices will end the year lower in 2023
The SRS Fund Review
While the new year usher in a run up in REITs prices it is my belief that the fund fundamentals does not change materially on a month to month basis. As such I will only be updating the SRS Funds performance on a quarterly basis instead going forward.
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The SRS Fund Jun 2026
The month of Jun provided an important milestone in the Iran conflict. The agreement between the United States and Iran marked a significant step towards reducing geopolitical tension and reopening a clearer path for global energy flows
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MyNest US Fund Jun 26
June was another remarkable month in the evolution of the global capitalism and the artificial intelligence investment cycle.
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The SRS Fund May 2026
Korea, powered by the worldwide shortage and surge in memory demand, was hit directly by the AI wave, with its stock market more than doubling in a matter of 5 months. Taiwan, already the world’s most important advanced chip manufacturing hub has risen to become one of the largest stock market globally.
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MyNest US Fund May 26
May has been an incredibly illuminating month for the MyNest US Fund. Looking across the broader landscape, the S&P 500 Index has continued its steady leg up, gaining +5.15% in the month of May alone to push its Year-to-Date (YTD) gain to +10.73%.
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The SRS Fund Apr 2026
In my investment journey, there have been three occasions where I witnessed a company deliver a 10x return.
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MyNest US Fund Apr 26
The market rebounded strongly in April as investors appeared to look past geopolitical uncertainty and renewed their focus on earnings, artificial intelligence, and the long-term growth prospects of quality businesses.
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